ecVladimir putin is a man who likes victories; preferably stage-managed ones. A fixed election win followed by an exhilarating concert. A rousing Victory Day speech. Eight goals in an ice-hockey game.
The dictator copes less well with unscheduled setbacks, preferring to disappear from the stage. In 2000 he fumbled his response to the Kursk submarine tragedy. He was absent for over a day following the failed storming of the Beslan school in 2004, in which 186 child hostages were killed. Last year, when Yevgeny Prigozhin and his band of mercenaries made their way towards Moscow, Mr Putin was initially nowhere to be seen. So if he took a full 19 hours to conjure up a short TV performance to speak about the massive intelligence failure at Crocus City Hall in Moscow, he was falling into a familiar pattern.
The address itself gave little away—and appeared to serve as a hedge. Mr Putin claimed, ludicrously, that Ukraine had opened a border “window” to the terrorists as they tried to escape Russia in their white Renault Symbol. (Eleven people that Russian authorities blame for the attack have been arrested.) But Mr Putin stopped short of directly attributing responsibility to Ukraine for the attack—and said nothing about the Islamic State group that said it had carried it out.
Part of Mr Putin’s reluctance to go all-in on blaming Ukraine might reflect a worry that the American government is sitting on intelligence that could undermine such a claim. Part might be embarrassment at his security agencies’ failure to act on American warnings on March 7th of an imminent attack. Indeed, just three days before the assault Mr Putin had brushed off that intelligence as “blackmail”. Such a hubristic blunder would have consequences in a country where power can be held to account. Russia is not such a country.
The attack nevertheless represents a blow to the reputation of Mr Putin and the security services on which he depends. The manner of the assault, in which at least 137 people lost their lives, will not soon be forgotten. Some victims were killed within minutes when the gunmen opened fire from automatic rifles. But most succumbed to fire and smoke inhalation after the assailants set the auditorium ablaze. More than 200 people may have been in the hall when part of the roof collapsed. When emergency workers reached the smouldering ashes they found 28 bodies in a single toilet. Whole families had been hiding together, with mothers reportedly shielding their children.